ISW: Russia is improving its "Geranium" reactive air defense systems for penetrating air defenses – likely a winter campaign focused on energy.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its report on October 7 notes that Russia is improving its "Geranium" type guided drones to achieve more reliable breakthroughs through Ukraine's air defense systems at greater operational depth. Analysts do not rule out that Russia will use this tactic during the winter campaign of strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure in order to worsen living conditions for Ukrainians.
Russia is improving the "Geran" type of unmanned aerial vehicles so that they can overcome Ukrainian air defense systems at a greater operational depth. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from October 7. According to analysts, the improved "Geran" drones may be able to penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems more effectively than their standard versions.
ISW notes that Russian forces are using mass drone and missile strikes against a limited number of targets, in an attempt to suppress localized Ukrainian air defense systems before subsequent waves of attacks. This allows Russia to concentrate strikes with cruise and ballistic missiles on a smaller number of prioritized targets.
Analysts believe that Russia may use such a scheme during the winter campaign of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in 2026–2027 years. According to the ISW, Russia will attempt to worsen the daily lives of Ukrainians and force Ukraine to agree to Russian demands; analysts note that this tactic has already been used before.